During Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour, fans came up with a game they called Mastermind, a nod to a Swift track by the same name. Before each show, they would place their bets about what Swift would wear and sing that night.
They would watch the concerts, either in person or online, to see who was right.
Some Swifties played on an app with prizes for top scores, but many partook at home purely for bragging rights.
Now, some are taking that inquisitive spirit and putting money behind it. On sites like Kalshi and Polymarket, where there are markets for betting on everything from game scores to political appointments to daily high temperatures, millions of dollars in bets are being placed in a seemingly niche category: Swift’s wedding with Travis Kelce.
“If you can pick up patterns and recognize patterns in Taylor’s behavior and the Easter eggs and get really good at thinking through the numerology,” said Sara Baker Bailey, a professor at Southern Connecticut State University, “then it’s a natural expansion to say, ‘Wait a minute, why don’t I make a little money off of this weird super power?’”
The prediction market sites are changing the fandom experience. For some, it’s a convergence of the sleuthing Swiftie fans are known for and the intrigue around an ultraprivate event for which little has been publicly confirmed — despite reports of wedding events being held everywhere from Rhode Island to Kansas City to Madison Square Garden in New York City and even the Cotswolds in Britain. For others, it’s an invasion of privacy.
On Kalshi, users have bet over $2 million on markets related to the wedding — $1.49 million on the location alone, which is in the top 5 percent of markets on the site. New York is the front-runner, while Pennsylvania and Tennessee each have distant 2 percent odds.
Tori Dunlap, the finance content creator behind the account Her First 100k, said she wondered if Kelce’s career as an athlete might be fueling the fire, given that some of his fans might already be accustomed to sports betting.
“We’re at this moment where Americans are really good at making anything a game or something that you can potentially make money off of,” Dunlap said.
She also noted that Swift had moved markets before — her tours infused money into local economies and her clothing choices often sell out.
“Her diamond ring was by a designer who was basically unheard-of and then suddenly she’s booked out three years in advance,” Dunlap said, adding, “There’s always going to be interest in, ‘Who’s she inviting?’ ‘What is she wearing?’”
On Polymarket, the guest list is a hot topic — users seem confident that the actress and singer Selena Gomez, the professional football player Patrick Mahomes and the singer Gracie Abrams will attend. Andrew Tate, an influencer known for his misogynistic views, has just 10 percent odds. (Polymarket declined to comment.)
“Fans have always tried to predict what happens next,” Clarissa Bronfman, a spokeswoman for Kalshi, wrote in an emailed statement. “In many ways, prediction markets are becoming another layer of fandom and expression for the superfan.”
Before the rise of such platforms, fans might have paid close attention to celebrities’ public lives because they were emotionally invested, or because they hoped to increase the chances they would get concert tickets, albums and merchandise. Now there’s another outlet for that attention.
Think of it like “parasociality exploded,” said Jess Rauchberg, a communications professor at Seton Hall University who studies digital media and internet culture, referring to the one-sided relationships some fans develop with celebrities.
The platforms, for their part, lean in to the lucrative opportunity: Jessica Golich, a 36-year-old content creator in Los Angeles, said Kalshi had paid her to post a video ad about the wedding predictions.
Still, for many Swifties, betting on the star’s personal life is crossing a line.
“I don’t think that you can really call yourself a supporter of an artist if you’re trying to place bets about their personal life,” said Tanner Holcomb, a 30-year-old consultant in Washington, D.C., who attended five Eras Tour shows, citing the artist’s right to some privacy.
He added, “She’s been really careful when she shares glimpses into her private life.”
Jessica Inskip, a financial content creator who has done ads for Kalshi, said she saw one upside to the celebrity betting markets: They might be a gateway into traditional investing for those who have been intimidated by it.
“I’ve said so many times that Swifties, they’re so analytical, if we could get them to just learn how to analyze a stock, would be so great,” she said.
Betting on Swift and Kelce’s wedding, however, is “100 percent gambling,” Inskip added.
